<aside> 🗞️ Welcome to the second edition of Nachos Monthly! Embrace the strategy as we present the very first interactive newsletter that is here to elevate your game to the next level. In each edition, we'll delve into the intricacies of the game, dissecting hands, exploring tactics, and uncovering data-driven insights that are often hidden from plain view.
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It's time for the second edition of the Nachos Weekly newsletter. In this issue, we'll be discussing an exploit that is rarely talked about in the modern poker era, but is nonetheless very important: value betting thinly.
One of the most common leaks I find in poker players' databases is the lack of thin value bets, particularly in discontinued lines like B-X-B or XC-X-B. The funny thing is that when you ask players whether they are value betting thinly enough, they often insist that they are. They may acknowledge that the player pool as a whole is not value betting thinly enough, but they forget that they are part of that same pool that is hesitant to go for that sweet, thin value.
Let's test your own valuebetting knowledge. Suppose you are on the big blind (BB) in a No-Limit Hold’em cashgame. Preflop, you called a single raise (2bb) made by the player under-the-gun (UTG). On the flop, you called a 1/3 pot continuation bet (c-bet) on a board of 9♥️6♠️3♣️. On the 9♦️ turn, both players checked, bringing a 2♥️ river. It's your turn to act. What is the worst hand that you would bet for value? To not spoil anything just yet we’ve put the answer all the way at the bottom, but for now let’s just go with the premiss that it’s thinner then you’d think.
In addition to value-betting thinly being a sound theoretical strategy, there is actually an incentive to push it a bit further in close zones. Why, you might ask? Well, the answer is simple: you can get away with it. Take a moment to think before answering this question: what is the correct counter against a player who is value-betting too thinly?
The only correct answer is: we raise more often. Significantly more often. But what does the pool do? To gain a better understanding we’ve plotted the pool check-raising frequency on the river vs a simple B-X-B line:
Pool and PIO’s check raising frequencies in a XC-X-XR line
One thing that immediately stands out is the fact that the pool does not nearly check-raise often enough versus all sizes by the in position player. So what does this mean for IP’s strategy? To answer that question I’ve loaded up a few sims in the following video:
Note: the video file may give an error. If this is the case the you can find a link to the video here.